Pinellas County has Tampa Bay's lowest jobless rate, at 4.4%

Job seekers in Hernando County faced the toughest hiring market in the Tampa Bay area this summer. The county's unemployment rate was 5.6% in July 2026. That ranked 1st among Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties.

Pasco County came next at 5.2%, followed by Hillsborough County at 4.8%. Pinellas County had the tightest market of the group, at 4.4%. That matched the U.S. rate of 4.4% for the same month.

Florida's statewide rate was 4.6% in July. That puts Pinellas below the state and Hillsborough a little above it. Pasco and Hernando sat further above the state rate.

The ranking matters for anyone looking for work or trying to fill a job. A higher rate means more residents want work and cannot find it, which economists call slack. A lower rate generally means employers are competing for a smaller pool of available workers.

These are July figures, the latest month with rates for all the counties alongside a year-earlier and a 2019 comparison. Preliminary August numbers released in late September put Hernando's rate at 5.4%. Preliminary figures can be revised, and rates that are not seasonally adjusted often shift from month to month with the calendar.

Higher than a year ago in each county

Unemployment rose in every county over the past year. Hernando's rate rose 0.8 percentage points from July 2025, and Pasco's rose 0.8 percentage points.

Hillsborough County's rate rose 0.7 percentage points over the same stretch. Pinellas County's rose 0.6 percentage points, the smallest increase in the group.

Statewide, Florida's rate rose 0.5 percentage points from July 2025 to July 2026. So each Tampa Bay county lost more ground than Florida as a whole. The counties with the highest rates now, Hernando and Pasco, also saw the largest increases.

Over the longer run, the county rates have moved closely with the state and national lines, through the 2020 spike and the recovery that followed. Hernando has generally been the highest of the group.

Still above 2019 levels

Compared with July 2019, before the pandemic, every county remains above its earlier rate. Hernando's rate is up 1.4 percentage points, and Pasco's is up 1.4 percentage points.

Hillsborough County's rate is 1.2 percentage points above its July 2019 level. Pinellas County's is up 1.1 percentage points.

Those gaps are wider than the state's and much wider than the nation's. Florida's rate is up 1.0 percentage point from July 2019, while the U.S. rate is up 0.4 percentage points. By this measure, the Tampa Bay area has drifted further from its pre-pandemic job market than the country as a whole.

These figures show how far rates have moved, not why they moved. None of the data in this report explains the cause of the increases.

What it means for job seekers and employers

County unemployment rates count people where they live, not where they work (2026 M08 Results). A Pasco resident who commutes to a job in Tampa counts toward Pasco's rate, not Hillsborough's. So the higher rates in Pasco and Hernando describe the residents there, not necessarily the jobs based there.

For employers in Pasco and Hernando, the numbers suggest a larger pool of local residents looking for work than elsewhere in the region. Job seekers there face more competition for openings close to home.

In Pinellas County, the market is tighter. Employers there may have fewer job seekers to choose from, though the county's rate has also risen over the past year and since 2019.

The state and national picture for August was mixed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics listed Florida among states whose unemployment rate edged down in its August report (2026 M08 Results). Nationally, the seasonally adjusted rate was unchanged over the month and little changed from August 2025 (2026 M08 Results).

Job growth was narrow. The bureau's August report named California, Wisconsin, South Carolina and New Mexico as the states with job gains (2026 M08 Results). Florida was not on that list.

Next, watch the bureau's metro-area figures for August, which were scheduled for publication on Sept. 30 (2026 M08 Results). The September county numbers that follow will show whether Hernando's preliminary August dip holds, and whether Tampa Bay rates keep running ahead of a year earlier.

How we did this

We used not seasonally adjusted county, state and national unemployment rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties. To avoid seasonal swings, we compared July 2026 with the same month in 2025 and in 2019, and ranked the counties by their July 2026 rates. We also noted Hernando's preliminary August 2026 rate of 5.4%.

Unemployment rate: the share of people in the labor force — those working or actively looking for work — who do not have a job but are looking for one. Percentage point: the simple difference between one rate and another, found by subtracting the earlier rate from the later rate. It is not the same as a percent change. Not seasonally adjusted: figures that include regular seasonal swings, such as summer and holiday hiring. They are best compared with the same month in other years. Labor market slack: unused capacity in the workforce, such as people who want jobs but cannot find them. A higher unemployment rate signals more slack.

Limitations

• County unemployment rates are estimates built largely from a household survey and statistical models, so small differences between counties may fall within the margin of error.
• August 2026 county figures are preliminary and may be revised.
• Rates that are not seasonally adjusted should be compared with the same month in other years, not with the month before.
• County rates count residents where they live, so they do not measure jobs located in each county.
• The national figures cited from the bureau's August report are seasonally adjusted and are not directly comparable to the county rates.
• The data shows how much rates changed, not why they changed.

Sources

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate — Hillsborough County, FL (LAUS, not seasonally adjusted), latest period August 2026; retrieved Oct. 11, 2026. Data
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate — Pinellas County, FL (LAUS, not seasonally adjusted), latest period August 2026; retrieved Oct. 14, 2026. Data
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate — Pasco County, FL (LAUS, not seasonally adjusted), latest period August 2026; retrieved Oct. 14, 2026. Data
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate — Hernando County, FL (LAUS, not seasonally adjusted), latest period August 2026; retrieved Oct. 14, 2026. Data
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate — Hillsborough County, FL (LAUS, not seasonally adjusted) (+8 more series), latest period September 2026; retrieved Oct. 14, 2026. Data
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate — Pinellas County, FL (LAUS, not seasonally adjusted) (+8 more series), latest period September 2026; retrieved Oct. 14, 2026. Data
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate — Pasco County, FL (LAUS, not seasonally adjusted) (+8 more series), latest period September 2026; retrieved Oct. 14, 2026. Data
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate — Hernando County, FL (LAUS, not seasonally adjusted) (+8 more series), latest period September 2026; retrieved Oct. 14, 2026. Data