Hernando County ranks 2nd for diabetes among peer metro counties

Adults in Hernando County are more likely to have a diabetes diagnosis than adults in neighboring Tampa Bay area counties, new health estimates show. About 14.9% of Hernando adults said a doctor had told them they have diabetes in the 2023 survey year.

That placed Hernando 1st among the area's core counties: Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando. Its rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than Hillsborough County's 12.5%. That gap passed the statistical test we used.

The figures come from the newest PLACES release, which offers county estimates for a long list of health measures. That lets residents compare their own county with its neighbors on the same yardstick.

Diabetes: Hernando stands apart

Pinellas County's diabetes estimate was 13.1%. Pasco County's was 12.8%. Both fall between Hillsborough and Hernando, and they sit close to each other.

The clearest difference in the diabetes numbers is between Hernando and Hillsborough. The z-score for that comparison was 1.8 z-score, above the cutoff for significance at the confidence level we used. In plain terms, the gap is unlikely to be a fluke of the survey.

We did not run that test on every pair of counties. Smaller gaps, such as the one between Pinellas and Pasco, may fall within the margin of error. Readers should treat them as close calls, not firm rankings.

Hernando's rate also stands out beyond the Tampa Bay area. It ranked 2nd for diabetes among the local counties and the peer-metro counties we compared.

Denver County sat at the other end. Its estimated diabetes rate was 7.1%. The chart below shows each Tampa Bay area county's estimates on diabetes, obesity and checkups, along with the range of likely values around each.

For any one Hernando resident, these numbers do not describe personal risk. They describe how common the condition is across the county's adult population as a whole.

Obesity follows a similar pattern

An estimated 36.1% of Hernando adults have obesity. That compares with 31.6% in Hillsborough and 31.5% in Pinellas. Hernando's rate is 4.6 percentage points above Pinellas County's.

Hillsborough and Pinellas are almost the same on this measure. Pasco's estimate appears in the chart above. Where the ranges for counties overlap, the difference between them may not be real.

Our data did not include a significance test for the obesity gaps. So while Hernando's estimate is the highest of those reported here, the size of that lead carries more uncertainty than the diabetes gap does.

Again, Denver offers a contrast. Its adult obesity estimate was 21.6%, well below any of the Tampa Bay area figures in this report.

Checkups: Hillsborough trails

On prevention, the picture shifts. In Pinellas, 79.5% of adults said they had a routine checkup in the past year. Hernando was close behind at 79.1%.

Hillsborough County had the lowest estimate of the counties with checkup figures here: 76.6%. These are survey-based estimates, and we did not test whether the checkup gaps are statistically meaningful.

So Hernando, the county with the highest diabetes and obesity estimates in this report, also posted one of the higher checkup rates. Hillsborough, with a lower diabetes estimate, posted the lowest checkup rate.

A checkup is a basic measure of whether people are seeing a doctor. It does not measure the quality of that care. The data also cannot say whether counties with more checkups find more diabetes, or why rates differ from county to county.

No cited research in this report explains these patterns. The estimates show where the counties differ, not the reasons behind those differences.

The full PLACES release goes well beyond these measures. The chart below ranks the Tampa Bay area counties side by side on every measure in the dataset.

Those rankings use crude rates, which are not adjusted for age. A county with an older population can show a higher crude rate even if its underlying risk is similar, so the rankings are not a direct test of which county is healthier.

Crude rates still matter for planning. They describe the share of adults in each county who actually live with a condition, which shapes demand for clinics, pharmacies and health programs.

The next PLACES release will show whether Hernando's diabetes gap with Hillsborough holds, and whether Hillsborough closes its checkup gap with Pinellas. Until then, residents can use the rankings chart above to see where their county stands on each measure.

How we did this

We used PLACES county-level estimates for the 2023 survey year to compare Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties on diabetes, obesity, routine checkups and other measures, along with counties in peer metros. We compared crude prevalence rates and measured gaps in percentage points. For the Hernando–Hillsborough diabetes gap, we ran a significance test; its z-score was 1.8 z-score.

Crude prevalence: the share of all adults in a county with a condition, without adjusting for differences in age between counties. Age-adjusted rate: a rate recalculated as if every county had the same age mix, which makes comparisons of underlying risk fairer. Diagnosed diabetes: adults who said a doctor or other health professional told them they have diabetes. Obesity: adults whose reported height and weight put their body mass index in the obese range. Routine checkup: a visit to a doctor for a general exam within the past year, not for a specific injury or illness. Percentage point: the simple difference between one percentage and another. Z-score: a measure of how large a difference is compared with the uncertainty in the estimates. Larger values give more confidence that a gap is real. Confidence interval: the range of values within which the true rate likely falls.

Limitations

• PLACES figures are model-based estimates built from survey data, not direct counts of every resident.
• The rates here are crude, meaning not adjusted for age. Counties with older populations can show higher rates even when underlying risk is similar.
• The survey relies on what adults report about themselves, such as whether a doctor told them they have diabetes. Undiagnosed cases are not counted.
• We tested statistical significance only for the Hernando–Hillsborough diabetes gap. Other differences, including the obesity and checkup gaps, may fall within the margin of error.
• This report does not compare the counties with Florida or national averages.
• The data shows where counties differ, not why. No explanation for the differences is established here.
• The estimates reflect the 2023 survey year and may not capture changes since then.

Sources

• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, PLACES: Local Data for Better Health: PLACES: Local Data for Better Health, County Data, 2025 release (PLACES 2025 release), latest period 2025; retrieved Oct. 15, 2026. Data